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Post by socal on Mar 27, 2008 8:18:55 GMT -6
This just in, if you buy at the very top of a bubble, it might take you a decade or more to get your money back. If you change the period to 20 years or 6 years, you're up nicely. There is a reason my cash sat in a mortgage REIT and a savings account until a few weeks ago -- because I'm not a sucker who buys at the top. Wow... and I was beginning to think you were an investment wunderkind.... but if your cash sat in a mortgage REIT and a savings account until a few weeks ago... you basically suck. As smart investors buy when it's at the bottom - not after it has already recovered. But, in your favor... you are starting at year 2000 levels. So look for the next Enron to ride for a few years...
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Post by NOTTHOR on Mar 27, 2008 8:52:08 GMT -6
Don't worry, I bought the mortgage REIT several years ago when the worrywarts said they would all go bankrupt because all the malls were going to close due to e-commerce. It has long yielded near 20% per year. I bought 1,000 more shares of it three weeks ago when everyone said it would go bankrupt, I'm up 2 large on that position right now. I bought C primarily in late January and last Monday. I bought LEH last Monday and have just about doubled that position. I bought AIG last Monday. I think these are all at attractive valuations for long-term holdings at this point. I've got plenty of dry powder on the sidelines, too. I've been buying Munis that yield north of 5% in the past few weeks, as well as select, out of favor corporate bonds that are yielding north of 10%. The firesale that is going on in the financials is a boon to someone like me who is young and who has cash to toss at the market. Had I bought C and AIG and munis a year ago, my portfolio would be a shit storm of red ink. I guess I was a sucker for basically sitting in cash during a time I thought PEs were too high.
Stocks go up and down, but no one will ever call a top or a bottom. As long as you buy when stuff seems cheap and keep some dry powder so you can get in the game when the market kicks the shit out of a company you like, you'll do fine over the long-run.
My 401(k) was 50/50 bonds and stocks, but then as I watched the market tumble and rates go down driving the bond market up, I went all in on the S&P 500 in late January. Sure, it might ride down in the short run, but it'll be back up.
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barber
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Posts: 598
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Post by barber on Mar 27, 2008 11:17:13 GMT -6
Well if you think deregulation = stop punishing crimes such as fraud, perjury and conspiracies to commit same, then maybe the example of the collapse of Enron makes sense in a discussion about deregulation. When I speak of deregulation, however, I don't speak of removing penalties and prosecution for such crimes.
Up until very recently, I have been flying every week, and I think the airlines are much, much better than prior to dereg. THere are more flights, they are much cheaper and the service is more than adequate. I don't need a meal on a flight that lasts 2 or 3 hours. I'm a big boy and can plan my meal schedule accordingly. I also don't need a stewardess to check on me.
Here's an idea: Get rid of the three stewadesses on the flight who really serve no purpose, and replace them with an air marshal on each flight, who is trained to rip the head off any jagbag that threatens the flight. My guess is that if one of those terrorists on 9/11 would have tried the box cutter move on Chuck Norris, the terrorist would have been eating his own balls for lunch. Given the choice of paying someone trained to protect me v. paying for three butterfaces to ask me if I need something to drink, I'll take the air marshall. I know that does meet the union specs for United, but I could care less.
That said, showing me how to blow up the life preserver in the event of an emergency is a pretty underrated move.
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Post by The Flying Spaghetti Monster on Mar 27, 2008 12:51:06 GMT -6
I guess you have never experienced the $650+ flight from Des Moines to O'Hare or Denver Int.
Granted, I can get a flight to Miami for at the same time for $290, and actually fly on the same plane to meet my connection in Chicago.
Why would there be such disparity, you ask, for the same seat? Probably because that Des Moines to Chicago ticket is for business, and since UAL and AA has run out of town every carrier who has tried to compete on the DSM/CHI milkrun, they can charge whatever they want to because they know that businesses will pay as they have no other choice; whereas the recreational flyer will just drive.
I am all about free and open markets, but it has been proven time and again that businesses cannot adequately police themselves. A little regulation and enforcement is o.k.
And bince you all like to point to telecom, if it wasn't for regulation, there would have been no telephones in Iowa outside of any town smaller than 10,000 probably until the 80s or 90s. None. And more likely any any towns smaller than 100,000. Its just not that profitable to serve anything smaller than that.
Sometimes regulation is good.
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Post by NOTTHOR on Mar 27, 2008 13:13:34 GMT -6
Yeah, I've seen some ridonkulously expensive tickets to Chicago from Neck Moines. That's the miracle of the small market airport in BFE. I also flew from Chicago to Neck Moines and back around Christmas for $166 total.
Bince you've unraveled a scheme by AA and UAL to run all the competition out, perhaps I should alert you to the fact that you can get treble damages plus attorney's fees for successful lawsuits against companies who violate antitrust laws. Call a lawyer, be the lead plaintiff. You'll make out like a bandit. Just prove predatory pricing or whatever other theory you have, and watch as I describe my weekend before Christmas $166 flight.
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Post by The Flying Spaghetti Monster on Mar 27, 2008 13:40:12 GMT -6
Thanks for reafirming my point.
You bought cheap tickets at Christmas time, when recreational/consumers are buying tickets.
But you are right, UAL and AA are not stupid. They have their own barristers who are equally overprice and slimey who lead them through the looking glass by having them do just to make it expensive for anyone to prove beyond a preponderance of a doubt that they are in fact sleezy and slimey.
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Post by NOTTHOR on Mar 27, 2008 13:49:10 GMT -6
I just tossed a quick search into Yahoo Travel for a few weeks from now. Just a hair over $300. Not bad considering oil is over $100 a barrel. Trust me, if I could prove any theory of antitrust violation against an airline, I sure as hell wouldn't be doing M&A work, I'd be litigating antitrust cases. A case like that would be better than a fucking winning Powerball ticket and there are plaintiffs lawyers 1000 times slimier than the slimiest corporate lawyer looking for that shit every day. I just think the reason there aren't more flights out of Neck Moines is that is a shitty airport in the middle of bumblefuck and you have to fly really small planes that have a higher marginal cost to operate than the jumbo jets that provide connecting service between major cities. But things like marginal cost don't fit neatly into the liberal mantra because liberals don't study things like economics.
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Post by socal on Mar 27, 2008 14:01:21 GMT -6
I just tossed a quick search into Yahoo Travel for a few weeks from now. Just a hair over $300. Not bad considering oil is over $100 a barrel. Trust me, if I could prove any theory of antitrust violation against an airline, I sure as hell wouldn't be doing M&A work, I'd be litigating antitrust cases. A case like that would be better than a fucking winning Powerball ticket and there are plaintiffs lawyers 1000 times slimier than the slimiest corporate lawyer looking for that shit every day. I just think the reason there aren't more flights out of Neck Moines is that is a shitty airport in the middle of bumblefuck and you have to fly really small planes that have a higher marginal cost to operate than the jumbo jets that provide connecting service between major cities. But things like marginal cost don't fit neatly into the liberal mantra because liberals don't study things like economics. How did you evolve the vocal chords in your rectum? A man of your wealth shouldn't be dealing with the airlines, you should have your own plane. Besides Buddy Holly & Paine Stewart, flying planes into & out of Iowa isn't all that risky - nor expensive.
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Post by The Flying Spaghetti Monster on Mar 27, 2008 14:08:10 GMT -6
I've seen what happens first hand over the past 15 years when there have been 2 low-cost carriers enter the DSM/CHI market. Its not pretty.
Also, booking 2+ weeks out, you can get some pretty decent deals. But sometimes in business, you don't get that much notice, especially when deals are going down. You would think some big-shot M&A hack would know that. ;D
Run this exercise. You just get a call that you're needed out on the Plains for a big deal that is teetering on completion. You need to leave Monday a.m. and get back on Friday. Go book your flights.
Into Omaha, which has someone other than UAL and AA, but is still pretty comparable to Des Moines, the fare is $264.
Same parameters for Des Moines, a similar city, and the fare is $845.
I know there are a lot of factors at play, but the fact that AA and UAL have run every CHI/DSM carrier out of town is a big one in the difference between those fares.
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Post by NOTTHOR on Mar 27, 2008 14:23:23 GMT -6
There is no concerted effort to run guys out of biz in Neck Moines. Neck Moines is a piece of shit airport that is not highly profitable. I flew out of Neck Moines a few times when I was doing recruiting. I had one flight to O'Hare with three people on it. On my flight on Christmas Eve, there were 8 people on board. There are a plethora of shitty flights like that which will drive a small carrier out of the market because they can't stomach the short term operating losses that come with operating there.
Starting an airline isn't that capital intensive. Call some buddies and get a consortium together to lease a plane or two and undercut AA and UAL. I bet you could make it last 3 months, as you will quickly find out why Warren Buffett doesn't invest in airlines - they are generally net destroyers of capital. Even though Omahall and Neck Moines are close, Omahall has enough mass in the market to warrant a Southwest flight to Midway. Neck Moines does not. That is the difference in pricing right there.
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Post by The Flying Spaghetti Monster on Mar 27, 2008 14:45:35 GMT -6
If you call my beloved U "Neck Moines" ONE more time, I'm going to jump on one of those $845 flights and go all Johnny Lawrence on you.
Knock. It. Off.
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Post by lpcalihawk on Mar 27, 2008 15:00:43 GMT -6
If you call my beloved U "Neck Moines" ONE more time, I'm going to jump on one of those $845 flights and go all Johnny Lawrence on you. Knock. It. Off. Make him disappear like Johnny Gosh
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Post by socal on Mar 27, 2008 15:57:36 GMT -6
If you call my beloved U "Neck Moines" ONE more time, I'm going to jump on one of those $845 flights and go all Johnny Lawrence on you. Knock. It. Off. Who's Johnny Lawrence?
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Post by The Flying Spaghetti Monster on Mar 27, 2008 16:28:49 GMT -6
If you call my beloved U "Neck Moines" ONE more time, I'm going to jump on one of those $845 flights and go all Johnny Lawrence on you. Knock. It. Off. Who's Johnny Lawrence?
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Post by NOTTHOR on Mar 27, 2008 17:11:11 GMT -6
Scirvandale hasn't been known by it's true name "Herb and Ale" since the BTR-meister got out of town back in the Nine Six. Neck Moines is Neck Moines. There it is. It's out there. Save up your pennies and maybe someday you can swing that $845. You'll only need a one way though, so you better save $1491 or whatever ungodly cost they charge for a one-way.
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